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Msg ID: 2716141 Obsy brings up a good point- Taking responsibility +1/-0     
Author:bladeslap
1/7/2022 4:45:54 PM

Obsy,

Please name one thing Trump took responsibilty for (that didn't go as planned) in his entire presidency.

Next, please name something Biden took responsbility for

Thanks



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Msg ID: 2716151 Obsy brings up a good point- Taking responsibility +2/-1     
Author:Old Guy
1/7/2022 7:12:53 PM

Reply to: 2716141

With Trump the better question is "what are the things he did that went wrong?

Sure you can produce a list but everything on it will be opinion.

Trump did take responsibility for the goverment shut down over the wall?  There as that.

Biden has had major blunders, one after the other, and instead of  taking responsibility for the failure he tells us how good he did.  The worst In my mind was Afghanistan.  Other might consider the inflation or crisis at the border.

Today was a good example, shitty jobs report, but he didn't take responsibility, instead he mislead the facts.



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Msg ID: 2716224 With Trump the better question is "what are the things he did that went wr +2/-0     
Author:TheCrow
1/8/2022 1:09:35 PM

Reply to: 2716151

"With Trump the better question is "what are the things he did that went wrong?

"Sure you can produce a list but everything on it will be opinion."

One can argue most of Trump administration actions, one way or the other. Until the novel coronavirus.

His minimizing the risk, denying and delaying rational public health measures clearly caused the 2020 economic contraction and hundreds of thousands of deaths. The Donald has rationalized, explained that failure as an attempt to avoid panic.

Is this better? United States Coronavirus Cases: 60,464,426; Deaths: 858,346

The estimated death toll in America is 970,243 reported COVID-19 deaths based on Current projection scenario by April 1, 2022. That estimate is based on the number of infections peaking in late January or into February 2022. If, as many experts believe, the Covid-19 pandemic continues in America, there will be reduced rate of fatalities after April, but many more Americans will die.

There is a reason why America, with state of the art healthcare resources, has a disproportionate number of infections compared to other advanced economies- Trump's delay allowed the novel coronavirus enough time to establish itself. America has had the highest number of infections from that day forward.

#Country,
Other
Total
Cases
Total
Deaths
New<br />Deaths Active
Cases
 Tot Cases/
1M pop
Deaths/
1M pop
Total
Tests
Tests/
1M pop
Population
1/">Andorra 141 >  31     
2gro/">Montenegro  1  60     
3ar/">Gibraltar 100 >  4     
4les/">Seychelles 134 >        
5ino/">San Marino 103 >  5     
6>Aruba 181 >  6     
7/">Georgia  28        
8arthelemy/">St. Barth 6  605   
9epublic/">Czechia  18  473     
10a/">Slovenia  6  156     
11UK  313  868     
12ia/">Lithuania  16  96     
13ands/">Netherlands  8  408     
14/">Belgium  13  473     
15/">Ireland     83     
16/">Estonia  3  19     
17/">Croatia  36  249     
18-islands/">Channel Islands 116 >    658   
19USA           

Even The Donald, a sitting president, was infected and hospitalized with Covid-19. Ironic, isn't it?

 

Excess Deaths in the United States During the First Year of COVID-19

Accurately determining the number of excess deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is hard. The most important challenge is accurately estimating the counterfactual count of baseline deaths that would have occurred in its absence. This analysis used new methods to: estimate this baseline metric; calculate excess deaths during the first year of the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic; and examine plausibility of the excess death estimates obtained in this and prior analyses. Total, group-specific and cause-specific excess deaths in the U.S. from March 2020 through February 2021 were calculated using publicly available data covering all deaths from March 2009 through December 2019 and provisional data from January 2020 through February 2021. The estimates indicate that there were 646,514 (95% CI: 597,514 to 695,520) excess deaths in the U.S. during this period, with 83.4% (95% CI: 77.5% - 90.2%) of these attributed directly to COVID-19. There were substantial differences across population groups and causes in the ratio of actual-to-baseline deaths, and in the contribution of COVID-19 to excess mortality. Prior research has frequently underestimated baseline deaths and so has overstated excess mortality and the percentage of it attributed to non-COVID-19 causes.



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Msg ID: 2716238 Really +1/-1     
Author:Old Guy
1/8/2022 3:01:02 PM

Reply to: 2716224

I did post it would be better to post what Trump did that went wrong.  You did not identify anything.  

That is just opinion.  Maybe the telling point is, which persident has had more deaths.

Which president has had more death from Covid during his watch?



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Msg ID: 2716257 "Really" We can argue about many of the Trump administrations actions. +1/-0     
Author:TheCrow
1/8/2022 5:27:55 PM

Reply to: 2716238

"I did post it would be better to post what Trump did that went wrong.  You did not identify anything."

We can argue about many of the Trump administrations actions. Trump well and truly screwed the pooch withe the novel coronavirus. He denied, minimized and delayed response to the novel coronavirus for at least three months, allowing the 15 infected to become thousands.

 

"Which president has had more death from Covid during his watch?"

A point that has no point. How long does it take for an epidemic to become uncontrollable? 1 infection? 15? Those are numbers that can be quarantined, contact traced.

America, on March 3 2020 had 124 cases; that's a number that can be addressed by public health measures.

In June 2020, America had 1,901,523 Covid-19 cases.

This is why prompt public health measures are important. Watch how quickly the number of infected increase from February to June. Trump's minimization, delay and denial killed hundreds of thousands more Americans:


 





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Msg ID: 2716251 With Trump the better question is "what are the things he did that went wr +2/-0     
Author:bladeslap
1/8/2022 4:43:04 PM

Reply to: 2716224

"I purposely downplayed Covid - The Chineese flu" ... It's no worse than the flu. It will just magically go away. The democrats and the news are making more an issue out of it than it needs to be.

More than 1 in every 500 people in the country died of it

More than 1 in 100 over 65 died from it

What Share of People Who Have Died of COVID-19 Are 65 and Older – and How Does It Vary By State? | KFF

 



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Msg ID: 2716227 Biden has had major blunders, one after the other, and instead of taking  +0/-0     
Author:TheCrow
1/8/2022 1:33:11 PM

Reply to: 2716151

"Biden has had major blunders, one after the other, and instead of  taking responsibility for the failure he tells us how good he did.  The worst In my mind was Afghanistan.  Other might consider the inflation or crisis at the border."

One of the surest indicators of a weak position in an argument is false equivalency. Biden isn't operating in the same world situation as Trump was. They each have made significant errors. I agree that the AFghanistan withdrawal was- to put as good a face on it as possible, was apparently a horrendously flawed exercise that killed as almost many Americans in it's execution as the average annual toll.

Could that have been done better, with less Americans killed and injured? Probably, but that's 20/20 hindsight. What is absolutely undeniable is that Biden took Americans out of Afghanistan, minimizing further fatalities after that point. Trump didn't do that, or couldn't take the risk that Biden did. Neither could Obama and W Bush. But Biden got it done, period.

 

The current inflationary economics has clearly identifiable, temporary causes. Those causes were also unavoidable as the world economies started recovering from the Covid recession.

 

There are external causes of the border crisis that no president can control. Biden has made mistakes in his handling of the issue. The question is how much more tax burden are Americans willing to bear to minimize 'undocumented' immigration? How much is it costing Americans now?

(excerpt)

Abstract

"This article examines the major economic pros and cons of illegal immigration and answers the question: what, if any, are the public and private costs of illegal immigration in the United States? In brief, the article finds that between four and 5.4 million illegal immigrants reside here.... The article also finds that illegal immigrants and their own citizen children cost taxpayers an additional $12 to $16.2 billion annually for education, public services, and incarceration after deducting all local, state, and federal taxes paid in by them. In the private sector, illegal aliens are found to save their employers and owners of capital about $1.5 billion more than U.S. workers lose due to wage depression. The article also considers what legal and enforcement reforms would be necessary to dramatically slow the current flow of 300,000 illegals yearly and concludes that, although improvements in the system are now being proposed, the actual reforms will be insufficient to more than stem the currently rising tide of illegals due to economic instability in Mexico and the Third World."



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Msg ID: 2716240 Really +1/-1     
Author:Old Guy
1/8/2022 3:10:04 PM

Reply to: 2716227

You are posting from a very weak position, none of what you claim is true.  Most of it has been debated over and over.  You points have never been proven to be true.



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Msg ID: 2716242 Crow!what the crap? +1/-1     
Author:Old Guy
1/8/2022 3:18:02 PM

Reply to: 2716227

Was that article that you linked and base your point of view on, really written in April 1995?



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Msg ID: 2716254 Unless your last name is  +1/-0     
Author:TheCrow
1/8/2022 4:59:40 PM

Reply to: 2716242

"Was that article that you linked and base your point of view on, really written in April 1995?"

Argue the points in the article. You can't. You wish to close the door after you or your immigrant ancestor came here. And all the new world is peopled by immigrants, even the aboriginals were migrant peoples.

America is a nation of immigrants. Immigration is vital to America's continued success. People who have the sufficient ambition to leave their homes are a positive gain for America.

 

Excerpts from articles discussing the issue:

 

At the very heart of the American idea is the notion that, unlike in other places, we can start from nothing and through hard work have everything. That nothing we can imagine is beyond our reach. That we will pull up stakes, go anywhere, do anything to make our dreams come true. But what if that’s just a myth? What if the truth is something very different? What if we are…stuck?

 

The census shows the US needs to increase immigration — by a lot

The 2020 census shows that America isn’t full — and that it needs immigrants.

Economists broadly agree that population growth fuels economic growth in wealthy countries. But the recently released census figures show the US population was 331.5 million people, an increase of just 7.4 percent between 2010 and 2020 — the lowest rate since the 1930s. Projections suggest that, unless current trends change, those numbers could continue to diminish dramatically over the next two to three decades, with the population growing by just 78 million by 2060.

 

 

American birth rates are low, and that’s a problem. There are two ways to increase the population: incentivize childbirth or incentivize immigration. While it’s beneficial that the new Covid-19 stimulus will include guaranteed income for parents via the child tax credit, the birth rate is not going to reach the replacement level (the number of births per woman that will sustain the population at its current level) overnight. Even if it did, it will be over two decades before babies born today reach their full economic potential. Immigration, on the other hand, invites workers who are already in their productive primes. They can enter the labor force immediately and start paying taxes, buying products, and supporting the aging population. Importantly, easier and faster immigration can improve the disastrous human rights situation on the American southern border, including the squalid refugee camps full of would-be American workers who are being denied legal access into the country. In short, immigration is a positive-sum game: native-born Americans and immigrants both benefit. 

 

 

July 21, 2021
 By Robert Leonard and Matt Russell

Mr. Leonard is the author of “Deep Midwest: Midwestern Explorations.” Mr. Russell is a co-owner of Coyote Run Farm.

KNOXVILLE, Iowa — Rural America has a growth problem. Business and industry desperately need workers, but the domestic labor pool is shallow, and the nation’s birthrate is slowing.

There’s no better place to help expand our economy than in rural communities like ours. We need smart public policy for sustained growth — and immigration reform would be a big part of it.

The Iowa Business Council, a group made up of representatives of the largest corporations in the state, has been asking for immigration reform for years to help solve our labor woes.

Plenty of research shows that flexible visa programs run federally or by the states could address this problem quickly.

 

 

While the Trump administration has made it a lot harder for immigrants to settle permanently in the U.S., a new study examines the extent to which a number of industries—and states—rely on immigrant labor to stay afloat and succeed.

div>


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Msg ID: 2716259 Really +1/-1     
Author:Old Guy
1/8/2022 5:36:13 PM

Reply to: 2716254

Read this one

https://www.villages-news.com/2022/01/02/unchallenged-immigration-endangers-america/



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Msg ID: 2716260 The real cost +1/-1     
Author:Old Guy
1/8/2022 5:39:17 PM

Reply to: 2716254

look at this one

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/cost-of-illegal-immigration-by-state



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Msg ID: 2716393 "The real cost" versus the real economic benefit. +0/-0     
Author:TheCrow
1/10/2022 12:40:39 PM

Reply to: 2716260

I'm not going to argue the numbers at your posted site. I will point out that, almost item to item, the "most expensive illegal immigrant states' are the most productive gdp economic states. There are factors working in those states that do not operate at the bottom of the productivity states.

People move to those states to participate in the economic activity? Or to avoid the stagnation of the lesser active gdp states? From personal observation, I'll estimate the my home state, Georgia is high on the lists of economic activity because we have a diverse population in the economy. Little Mexico, Little Honduras,Little China, Little india/Begali neighborhoods.

When I have the time, I like to go to one of our international markets in Decatur, Buford Highway. You can buy almost any food-stuff you can imagine at those stores amidst peoples from everywhere.



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Msg ID: 2716262 And the crime rate +1/-1     
Author:Old Guy
1/8/2022 5:43:39 PM

Reply to: 2716254

Notice the huge jump in crimes from illegals once Biden took office.

 I https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics/criminal-noncitizen-statistics



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Msg ID: 2716396 US crime: Is America seeing a surge in violence? +0/-0     
Author:TheCrow
1/10/2022 12:46:53 PM

Reply to: 2716262

No.

 

US crime: Is America seeing a surge in violence?

By Jake Horton
BBC Reality Check

Published7 July 2021
Related Topics
NYPD police at crime sceneIMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES
Image caption,
Police in Brooklyn investigate the scene of a shooting

New York has become the first state in the US to declare an emergency to tackle increasing levels of gun violence, directing extra funds for programmes aimed at preventing shootings.

"More people are now dying from gun violence and crime than [from] Covid," state governor Andrew Cuomo said.

President Joe Biden has also promised renewed efforts to tackle crime in the US, as a series of major cities experience spikes in violent offences.

We've taken a look at the violent crime trends across the US.

Is violent crime going up?

Police departments across the US define violent crime in slightly different ways, but the data usually includes murder, robbery, assault and rape.

Overall, violent crime was up by about 3% in 2020 over the previous year, but this should be seen in the context of the longer term downward trend from a peak in the early 1990s.

 
US violent crime rate

Across the US, there were 25% more murders recorded in 2020 than the previous year.

This is a steep rise, but the murder rate is still far lower than than in the early 1990s, when it was almost double the current figure.

US murder rate

Which cities are seeing a spike in murders?

Major US cities have tended to follow the national trend in becoming safer since the 1990s, but some have also seen a sharp rise in murders recently.

These spikes in some of the biggest US cities have been of considerable concern to President Biden's administration.

The New York Times looked at 37 cities across the US with data for the first three months of this year, and overall there has been an an 18% increase in murders compared with the same time period in 2020.

Chicago has one of the worst records for murders, with a big increase in 2020 and a continuing upwards trend so far in 2021.

 
Chicago murders

Shooting incidents in Chicago are also up 15% on the same point last year, and are more than double the level they were at two years ago.

A rise in the number of shootings has been seen in many other major US cities as well, with President Biden attempting to strengthen firearm regulations to combat gun violence.

NYPD at the scene of a shootingIMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES

New York has also seen shooting incidents and murders rise, continuing an upward trend which began in 2020.

Through to the middle of June, there have been almost 200 murders in New York so far this year - more than a 13% increase on the same period two years ago.

Shooting incidents in New York were up by nearly 38% for the period from the beginning of January up to 4 July compared with the same period in 2020.

However, June this year actually saw fewer shootings than June last year, going by police department data.

 

It's worth pointing out that over the last 20 years, both New York and Chicago, along with most other US cities, have seen overall violent crime drop significantly.

New York & Chicago violent crime

But in the last 15 months, coronavirus restrictions have put unprecedented social and economic pressures on people.

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo has linked the upward trend in gun violence to the disruption to school and work life caused by the pandemic.

He said this had left "at-risk youth without safe, productive places to go during the day."

There was also an increase in gun sales during the pandemic, which may have contributed to rising gun violence



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Msg ID: 2716267 Crow here is a question for ya! +1/-1     
Author:Old Guy
1/8/2022 6:14:23 PM

Reply to: 2716254

I believe you view illegal immigration the same as an legal immigration.  Big difference!   We do not object to immigant that comes here by complying with the rules.  They get researched,  just like immigration at Ellis island did for years!  You do know they rejected people that came to Ellis Island.  Why do you think they let them get off the ship onto the island and not the main land?

But, illegals are wrong, if the are the same then,

Why do the make up 11% of the inmate population, yet they are less than 4% of the population?

Easy one for you to answer!



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Msg ID: 2716388 And an answer for ya! +0/-0     
Author:TheCrow
1/10/2022 12:16:58 PM

Reply to: 2716267

I'll cut to the chase for you: 

Conclusion

Legal and illegal immigrants were less likely to be incarcerated than native‐​born Americans in 2018, just like in 2014, 2016, and 2017.

Native born Americans take our culture, success for granted, do not regard it as the unique treasure it is. Not the immigrants. They definitely do not want law enforcement attention.

Which aligns with my personal observation in the largest "Little Mexico" districts I visit regularly. These immigrant communities are less tolerant of criminal activity that other comparable native born socio-economic communities. They are here to succeed in business, commerce or inductry, and criminal/antisocial attitudes impede that.

I freakin' hate driving there, NOBODY exceeds the speed limits and they treat the right hand lane as the merge/exit lane, the left lane is the cruise lane at or less the speed limit.

 

Illegal Immigrant Incarceration Rates, 2010–2018: Demographics and Policy Implications

APRIL 21, 2020 • POLICY ANALYSIS NO. 890
By Michelangelo Landgrave and Alex Nowrasteh
 

President Trump has prioritized the arrest and deportation of illegal immigrants based largely on his argument that they are a significant and disproportionate source of crime in the United States. But is his argument supported by the facts? Illegal immigration and the crimes illegal immigrants commit are notoriously difficult to measure. This policy analysis is the latest paper in a series that attempts to answer that question by estimating illegal immigrant incarceration rates in the United States by using the American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample from the U.S. Census. This analysis goes beyond previous studies in the series as it updates our residual estimation method based on new research authored by University of California, Riverside, doctoral candidate Christian Gunadi and published in Oxford Economic Papers. Furthermore, we apply the updated methods to estimate the illegal immigrant incarceration rates in earlier years. Gunadi’s new methods slightly increased the illegal immigrant crime rate relative to that of native‐​born Americans, but the illegal immigrant crime rate is still much lower than for that of native‐​born Americans. The states and federal government should collect better incarceration, conviction, and arrest data by immigration status so that we can more accurately understand how immigrants affect crime in the United States. Our estimates show that immi­grants are less likely to be incarcerated than native‐​born Americans relative to their share of the population. Separately, legal immigrants and illegal immigrants each are less likely to be incarcerated than native‐​born Americans.

Introduction

President Trump has prioritized the arrest and deportation of illegal immigrants based largely on the perception that they are a significant and disproportionate source of crime in the United States.1 According to a recent poll by the Public Religion Research Institute, 38 percent of Americans believe that immigrants increase crime in local communities; there’s little doubt that many of the responders are specifically thinking of illegal immigrants when they answer affirmatively.2 Is this perception accurate? This policy analysis is the latest paper in a series that attempts to answer that question by estimating illegal immigrant incar­ceration rates in the United States by using the American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) from the U.S. Census. This analysis goes beyond previous studies in the series as it updates our residual estimation method based on new research authored by University of California, Riverside, doctoral candidate Christian Gunadi and published in Oxford Economic Papers.3 We also apply the updated methods to estimate the illegal immigrant incarceration rates in earlier years. Gunadi’s new methods slightly increased the illegal immigrant crime rate relative to that of native‐​born Americans, but the illegal immigrant crime rate is still much lower than it is for native‐​born Americans. The data show that all immigrants—legal and illegal—are less likely to be incarcerated than native‐​born Americans relative to their shares of the population. By themselves, illegal immigrants are less likely to be incarcerated than native‐​born Americans.

Background

We published the first nationwide estimates of the incarcerated illegal immigrant population in 2017, followed quickly by updates in 2018 and 2019.4 The 2017 brief analyzed incarceration rates for 2014, the 2018 brief analyzed incarceration rates for 2016, and the 2019 brief analyzed incarceration rates for 2017. The public interest in those briefs was so large that we updated the estimates using the most recent 2018 inmate data from the U.S. Census’s ACS. Estimates of the total criminal immigrant population vary widely in other sources and according to different measures, but the illegal immigrant incarceration rate is an important indicator of their criminality.5

Previous empirical studies of immigrant criminality generally find that immigrants do not increase local crime rates, are less likely to cause crime than their native‐​born peers, and are less likely to be incarcerated than native‐​born Americans.6 Illegal immigrant incarceration rates are not well studied; however, Cato Institute research based on data from the Texas Department of Public Safety found that, as a percentage of their respective populations, illegal immigrants had a criminal conviction rate about half that of native‐​born Americans in Texas in 2015 and 2017.7 Recent peer‐​reviewed empirical studies have found no link between violent crime and illegal immi­gration and a negative relationship between the number of illegal immigrants and most types of nonviolent crime.8 Our estimate of a low illegal immigrant incarceration rate is consistent with other research that finds that increasing immigration enforcement and deporting more illegal immi­grants does not reduce the crime rate, which would occur if illegal immigrants were more crime prone than natives.9

</div>

Methodology

This policy analysis uses ACS data to estimate the incarceration rate and other demographic characteristics for immigrants aged 18–54 in 2018. ACS inmate data are reliable as they are ordinarily collected by or under the supervision of correctional institution administrators; however, the quality of the data for the population that includes the incarcerated was not always as reliable. The response rate for the group quarters population—a subpopulation who live in facilities that are owned and managed by others, which includes prisoners incarcerated in correctional facilities—was low in the 2000 census.10 Recognizing the problem with data collection from the group quarters population, the Census Bureau substantially resolved it in the 2010 census and the ACS, making several tweaks over the years that have continually improved the size and quality of the group quarters sample.11

The ACS counts the incarcerated population by their nativity and naturalization status, but local and state governments rarely record whether prisoners are illegal immigrants.12 As a result, we have to use common statistical methods to identify incarcerated illegal immi­grant prisoners by excluding prisoners with characteristics that illegal immigrants are unlikely to have.13 In other words, we can identify likely illegal immigrants by looking at prisoners with individual characteristics highly correlated with being an illegal immigrant.

We changed our methods for identifying illegal immigrants in this analysis. In earlier versions of this policy analysis, we identified an illegal immigrant as one who falls under these criteria: the immigrant must have entered the country after 1982 (the cutoff date for the 1986 Reagan amnesty); cannot have been in the military; cannot be receiving Social Security or Railroad Retirement Income; cannot have been covered by Veteran Affairs or Indian Health Services; is not a citizen of the United States; is not living in a household where somebody receives food stamps (unless the immi­grant’s child, who may be eligible for food stamps if a U.S. citizen, is living with the immigrant); is not from the Democratic Republic of the Congo or Syria; was aged 59 years or younger upon arrival; and is not of Puerto Rican or Cuban origin if classified as Hispanic. Further, we omitted lawfully present migrants on Temporary Protected Status (TPS) by identifying them based on their birthplace, year of migration, and citizenship status. We imputed likely TPS recipient status to individuals from El Salvador (year of arrival 2001 or earlier); Honduras (1998 or earlier); Nicaragua (1998 or earlier); Haiti (2011 or earlier); Nepal (2015 or earlier); Somalia (2012 or earlier); Sudan (2013 or earlier); South Sudan (2016 or earlier); Syria (2016 or earlier); and Yemen (2017 or earlier).14 Despite our efforts to count TPS holders as legal immigrants in those earlier briefs, some other legal immigrants whose answers were consistent with those given by illegal immigrants were counted as illegal immigrants despite their legal immigration statuses.

In this new analysis, we adjusted our identification method based on excellent recommendations by Christian Gunadi, which were published in a paper in Oxford Economic Papers.15 Whereas earlier we imputed illegal immigrant status, Gunadi imputed legal immi­grant status and identified those left over as illegal immigrants. His methods avoid the overestimation problem that we had in our earlier briefs and produce a more accurate result. Following Gunadi, we identified an immigrant as lawfully present if he or she met any of the following criteria: the immigrant arrived after 1980; is a U.S. citizen; received welfare benefits such as Social Security, Supplemental Security Income, Medicaid, Medicare, or military insurance; served in the Armed Forces; works for the government; resided in public housing or received rental subsidies or was the spouse of someone who resided in public housing or received rental subsidies; or was born in Cuba and has a spouse who is a legal immigrant or U.S. citizen. Gunadi also counted those who work in an occupation that requires some form of licensing as lawfully present, but the proliferation of licensing for illegal immigrants on the state level makes this step less useful, so we dropped it.16 Otherwise, we used Gunadi’s methods to identify legal immi­grants and identified those who remained as likely to be illegal immigrants.

A limitation of the ACS data is that not all inmates in group quarters are in correctional facilities. Although most inmates in the public‐​use microdata version of the ACS are in correctional facilities, the data also include those in mental health and elderly care institutions and in institutions for people with disabilities.17 These inclusions add ambiguity to our findings about the illegal immigrant population but not to our findings about the immigrant population as a whole, because the ACS releases macrodemographic snapshots of inmates in correctional facilities, which allows us to check our work.18

The above‐​mentioned ambiguity in illegal immigrant incarceration rates prompted us to narrow the age range to those who are aged 18–54. This range excludes most inmates in mental health and retirement facilities. Few prisoners are under age 18, many in mental health facilities are juveniles, and many of those over age 54 are in elderly care institutions. Addi­tionally, few illegal immigrants are elderly, whereas those in elderly care institutions are typically over age 54.19 As a result, narrowing the age range does not exclude many individuals from our analysis. We are more confident that our methods do not cut out many prisoners because winnowing the age range reduces their numbers in the 18–54 age range to about 4.5 percent above that of the ACS snapshot.20 Natives in our results are those born as American citizens, and the group includes both those born in the United States and those born abroad to American parents.

Controlling for the size of the population is essential for comparing relative incarceration rates between the native‐​born, illegal immigrant, and legal immigrant subpopulations. Thus, we report the incarceration rate as the number of incarcerations per 100,000 members of that particular subpopulation, just as most government agencies do.21

Incarcerations

An estimated 1,933,039 native‐​born Americans, 83,698 illegal immigrants, and 71,472 legal immigrants were incarcerated in 2018. The incarceration rate for native‐​born Americans was 1,477 per 100,000; 877 per 100,000 for illegal immigrants; and 380 per 100,000 for legal immigrants in 2018 (Figure 1). Illegal immigrants are 41 percent less likely to be incarcerated than native‐​born Americans. Legal immigrants are 74 percent less likely to be incarcerated than natives. If native‐​born Americans were incarcerated at the same rate as illegal immigrants, about 785,000 fewer natives would be incarcerated. Conversely, if natives were incarcerated at the same rate as legal immigrants, about 1.4 million fewer natives would be in adult correctional facilities.

<div class="long-form__wrapper container--medium-down">

The ACS data include illegal immigrants incar­cerated for immigration offenses and those in Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) detention facilities.22 They are not incar­cerated for violent or property crimes but only for immigration violations. If we were to remove the 42,188 people in ICE detention facilities on any given day, that would lower the illegal immigrant incarceration rate to 435 per 100,000—just 15 percent above the incarceration rate for legal immigrants.23

Robustness Checks for Counting the Illegal Immigrant Population

Because our chosen ACS variables could have affected the number of illegal immigrants we identified in the data, we altered some of the variables to see whether the results significantly changed. First, we included illegal immi­grants who lived in households with users of means‐​tested welfare benefits. Illegal immigrants do not have access to those benefits, but U.S. citizens and some lawful permanent residents in their households do. This adjustment increased the illegal immigrant incarceration rate to 1,002 per 100,000, decreased the legal immigrant incar­ceration rate to 255 per 100,000, and did not affect the native incarceration rate.

Our second robustness check excluded all immigrants who entered the United States after 2009. Immigrants on lawful permanent residency can apply for citizenship after five years, guaranteeing that most of the lawful permanent residents who are able to naturalize have done so, which decreases the pool of potential illegal immigrants in our sample. This robustness check shrinks the size of the nonincarcerated illegal immigrant subpopulation relative to those incarcerated and, thus, slightly raises the rate of illegal immigrant incarceration to about 1,061 per 100,000. These variable changes did not alter our results enough to undermine confidence in the findings.

Illegal Immigrant Incarceration Rates over Time, 2010–2018

This policy analysis uses a slightly different method than earlier studies to identify illegal immigrants. As a result, we decided to apply our new methods to previous years to give a sense of how the illegal immigrant incarceration rate has changed over time (Figure 2). In every year, the illegal immigrant incarceration rate is between 26 percent and 41 percent below that of native‐​born Americans. In every year, the legal immigrant incarceration rate is between 66 percent and 75 percent below that of native‐​born Americans. Furthermore, the incarceration rate has declined for every group. From 2010 to 2018, the native‐​born incarceration rate fell by 7 percent, the legal immi­grant incarceration rate fell by 22 percent, and the illegal immi­grant incarceration rate fell by 15 percent.24

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Subtracting the number of illegal immigrants in ICE detention so as to focus on more serious criminals who are likelier to pose an actual danger to public safety shows that the illegal immigrant incarceration rate is closer to that of legal immigrants in those years. From 2010 through 2018, illegal immigrants in ICE detention facilities accounted for 49–89 percent of the higher illegal immigrant incarceration rate relative to legal immigrants. In other words, the main difference between the legal and illegal immigrant incarceration rates is that illegal immi­grants are more likely to be incarcerated for violating immi­gration law.

Compared to the earlier versions, our current analysis revises the illegal immigrant incarceration rate upward by 24 percent, 21 percent, and 20 percent for the years 2014, 2016, and 2017, respectively (Figure 3).25 These new revised illegal immigrant incarceration rates are still well below those for native‐​born Americans. Figure 3 shows that the illegal immi­grant incarceration rate in 2014, 2016, and 2017 was below that of native‐​born Americans by 31 percent, 36 percent, and 38 percent, respectively. That is a smaller difference than the 44 percent, 47 percent, and 49 percent that we reported in the previous respective years.

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Demographic and Social Characteristics

Incarceration rates vary widely by race and ethnicity in the United States, even within each immigrant category (Table 1). By race and ethnicity, legal and illegal immigrants have a lower incarceration rate than native‐​born Americans of the same race or ethnicity. The incarceration rate for all illegal immigrants is lower than the incarceration rate for native‐​born white Americans.

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Immigrants from certain parts of the world are more likely to be incarcerated than others (Table 2). Of all legal immigrants, those from other countries have the highest incarceration rate. The “other” category is composed of those individuals whose country of birth is unknown or those individuals who were born at sea. Again, illegal immigrants from other countries have the highest incarceration rate of any group, followed by those from Latin America, who are most likely to be incarcerated for immi­gration offenses and held in ICE detention facilities than immigrants from any other region of the world. Across all broad groups, those born in other countries have the highest incarceration rates followed by those born in the United States. About 73 percent of all immi­grants in the United States come from the top 20 countries of origin for the foreign‐​born population.26 Of those, illegal immigrants from Honduras and legal immigrants from Cuba have the highest incarceration rates (Table 3). The higher incarceration rates for illegal immi­grants from Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras are likely exacerbated by the significant number of them who are detained for immigration offenses.

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The distribution of prisoners by their immi­gration status and region of origin shows that 6.16 percent of all prisoners are from Latin America, whereas 92 percent were born in the United States (Table 4).

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About 88.1 percent of all prisoners are men, whereas only 11.9 percent are women (Table 5). Legal and illegal immigrant women make up a smaller proportion of their respective prisoner populations than native‐​born women, while men make up a higher proportion. The sex distribution of legal immigrant prisoners is far closer to that of native‐​born Americans than to that of illegal immigrants.

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Prisoners in every subpopulation are less educated than their total subpopulation (Table 6). About 63.7 percent of all native‐​born adults, including those not incarcerated, have some college education or above, whereas 18.6 percent of native‐​born prisoners have the same level of education. A total of 23.6 percent of legal immigrant prisoners and 14.4 percent of illegal immigrant prisoners have some college education or above, percentages that are lower than the percentages of their subpopulations with the same level of education (53.9 percent and 42.8 percent, respectively).27 Those in every immigration category who are highly educated tend to avoid incarceration.

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Native‐​born Americans and illegal immigrants have higher incarceration rates when they are young (Table 7). The peak incarceration rate for native‐​born Americans and illegal immigrants is between ages 30 and 34. The legal immigrant incarceration rate peaks between ages 25 and 29.

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The incarceration rates for legal and illegal immigrants generally increase with the amount of time they have spent in the United States, the major exception being the higher legal immi­grant incarceration rate in the 0–4 years category that then falls once legal immigrants have been here for 5–9 years (Table 8). A possible reason for this phenomenon is that legal immigrants who are criminally inclined rapidly run afoul of the law, serve short prison sentences, and are removed from the United States quickly enough that the incar­ceration rate for the 5–9 years of residency category declines greatly.

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Related to the amount of time immigrants have spent in the United States, illegal and legal immigrants who immigrate at a younger age are more likely to be incarcerated (Table 9). Illegal immigrants who arrive between ages 0 and 17 are about twice as likely to be incarcerated than those who arrive after age 17, suggesting that illegal immigrants who were old enough to choose to come here illegally are more law‐​abiding than those who were brought here as minors.

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The pattern is even more pronounced for legal immigrants. Those who immigrated between the ages of 0 and 17 were more than twice as likely to be incarcerated than legal immigrants who came at later ages. This again suggests that those old enough to choose to come to the United States legally are more law‐​abiding.

At least two nonmutually exclusive theories can explain why those who entered in their youth have higher incarceration rates. First, spending part of one’s childhood in the United States assimilates many immigrants to our high‐​crime culture. A second theory is that those who decide to come here have some systematically different characteristics that make them less likely to commit crimes, whereas those who are too young to make the decision to immigrate do not.

Policy Implications

The president has prioritized the arrest and deportation of illegal immigrants because much of the public believes that they are a significant and disproportionate source of crime in the United States.28 For immigration in general, Gallup asked Americans whether immigration has worsened the crime problem in the United States. Some 42 percent of respondents said that immigration worsened the crime situation, 7 percent said that immigration alleviated the crime situation, and 50 percent said it had no effect.29 According to Transatlantic Trends survey data, slightly less than half of Americans believe that immigrants increase crime in the United States.30 Of those who believe that immigrants increase crime, about 60 percent believe that illegal immigrants are primarily responsible.31

Although substantial percentages of the American public believe that immigration increases crime and that illegal immigrants disproportionately contribute to the problem, the evidence is that they decrease incarceration rates in the United States. Immigrants accomplish this because they are less crime prone than native‐​born Americans. The addition of a less crime‐​prone subpopulation to the United States mechanically reduces the overall incarceration rate in the country. The facts uncovered in this policy analysis should point the government toward other immigration policies that would actually reduce crime.

For instance, federal officials should abandon efforts to convince so‐​called sanctuary cities to cooperate with federal immigration officials because such cooperation will not lower violent and property crime rates nationwide. Illegal immigrants have a lower incarceration rate than native‐​born Americans, so scarce law enforcement resources should not be spent on identifying and deporting a subpopulation with such a low crime rate. If the purpose of law enforcement is to deter crime and to punish criminals, their resources would be inefficiently allocated if targeted at illegal immigrants.

Second, the federal government already has effective programs to identify illegal immi­grant criminals who have been arrested, convicted, or incarcerated. The federal government should continue those policies and make the removal of illegal immigrant criminals a priority but should not widen their reach to include illegal immigrants who have not committed criminal offenses or have not otherwise put Americans at risk.32

Third, the government should collect better data on illegal and legal immigrant criminality. Incarceration rates are just one measurement of criminality to fully understand relative crime rates in the United States. Unfortunately, the paucity of data means that we must estimate the number of illegal immigrants who are incar­cerated, which adds some uncertainty to our final numbers. Every state should collect and make available data on the immigration statuses of those convicted and arrested for crimes, just like Texas does, as well as those who are incarcerated.33 To be clear, this proposal would only require documenting the immigration status of people who are arrested for crimes, convicted of crimes, or incarcerated for crimes. There is no excuse for paucity of data on this important public policy issue.

Conclusion

Legal and illegal immigrants were less likely to be incarcerated than native‐​born Americans in 2018, just like in 2014, 2016, and 2017.34 Under the Gunadi methods that we employ here, the illegal immigrant incarceration rate rises somewhat relative to the incarceration rate for native‐​born Americas, but the gap is still huge for the period of 2010–2018.

Those incarcerated do not represent the total number of immigrants who can be deported under current law or the complete number of convicted immigrant criminals who are in the United States but merely those who are incarcerated. The younger the immigrants are upon their arrival in the United States and the longer that they are here, the more likely they are to be incarcerated as adults. This analysis provides numbers and demographic characteristics to better inform the public policy debate over immi­gration and crime. Lastly, we recommend that governments at all levels in the United States focus on collecting better data so that we can more precisely understand how illegal immigrants and legal immigrants contribute to crime in the United States.

Citation

Landgrave, Michelangelo, and Alex Nowrasteh. “Illegal Immigrant Incarceration Rates, 2010–2018: Demographics and Policy Implications.” Policy Analysis No. 890, Cato Institute, Washington, DC, April 21, 2020. https://doi.org/10.36009/PA.890.

 
 
 
 
 
 
pa890-cover.jpg

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Msg ID: 2716398 Some advice +0/-0     
Author:Old Guy
1/10/2022 12:52:29 PM

Reply to: 2716388

If you post data try and post data that is current.  When a president changes and all of the policies about illegals changes, and they flood across our border, numbers change big time.

Also try to post data from stuff that is not just an option article.

I don't think anyone reads the cut and paste junk.

Even your post shows 83,698 illegals in prison, you think that is OK!

 



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Msg ID: 2716399 Note that the study refutes your argument that illegals are more likely  +0/-0     
Author:TheCrow
1/10/2022 12:55:07 PM

Reply to: 2716398

Note that the study refutes your argument that illegals are more likely criminals than native born.



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Msg ID: 2716403 Teally +0/-1     
Author:Old Guy
1/10/2022 1:08:31 PM

Reply to: 2716399

A study done by Alex Nowrusten, what a joke!

This man thinks Biden has not opened the boarders enough!



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Msg ID: 2716401 "I believe you view illegal immigration the same as an legal immigration" +0/-0     
Author:TheCrow
1/10/2022 1:03:29 PM

Reply to: 2716267

"I believe you view illegal immigration the same as an legal immigration"

No, I don't. I never said anything like that.

What I have said is:

America needs immigrants.

The American immigration process is dysfuntional. "Who you know", like Melania's parents, come to the country while people who will make real contributions to the economy and prosperity of America wait years to come- if ever.

I thought 'conservative' Republicans hated chain migration?

 

 
Melania Trump’s parents, Amalija and Viktor Knavs, flank their lawyer, Michael Wildes, heading to their naturalization ceremony in Manhattan on Thursday.
Melania Trump’s parents, Amalija and Viktor Knavs, flank their lawyer, Michael Wildes, heading to their naturalization ceremony in Manhattan on Thursday.Credit...Holly Pickett for The New York Times
  • Aug. 9, 2018

President Trump has repeatedly and vehemently denounced what he calls “chain migration,” in which adult American citizens can obtain residency for their relatives.

On Thursday, his Slovenian in-laws, Viktor and Amalija Knavs, became United States citizens in a private ceremony in Manhattan by taking advantage of that same family-based immigration program.

Asked if the Knavses had obtained citizenship through “chain migration,” their lawyer, Michael Wildes, said, “I suppose.”

He said chain migration is a “dirtier” way of characterizing what he called “a bedrock of our immigration process when it comes to family reunification.”

Melania Trump had sponsored her parents for their green cards, Mr. Wildes said in describing the process by which the Knavses had become United States citizens. “Once they had the green card, they then applied for citizenship when they were eligible,” he said.

Even as his in-laws were going through the process, Mr. Trump was denouncing it. In November, he tweeted, “CHAIN MIGRATION must end now! Some people come in, and they bring their whole family with them, who can be truly evil. NOT ACCEPTABLE!” 

Stephanie Grisham, the first lady’s communications director, said that because the Knavses are not part of the administration, “I’m not commenting on them.”

Ms. Grisham directed further questions concerning the president’s views on immigration — and the immigration status of his in-laws — to the West Wing, which did not immediately respond to emails and phone calls requesting comment.

The Knavses have a relatively high profile for presidential in-laws. They frequently travel with the Trumps and split their time between New York, Palm Beach and Washington, where they stay in the White House.

Since initial reports emerged in February that the Knavses had obtained permanent residency in the United States, there has been a lack of clarity about when or how the couple received green cards. And unless the couple themselves divulge the timeline of their citizenship process, the applications and petitions are protected by privacy law.

Under immigration statutes, the Knavses would have needed to have their green cards for at least five years in order to apply for citizenship, along with fulfilling character, residency and civic knowledge requirements. The time to process an application for naturalization in New York City typically ranges from 11 to 21 months, according to the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

Their lawyer said that the couple had met the five-year requirement, but added, “I can’t give further comment.”

News of the ceremony prompted an immediate response on Twitter.

Ana Navarro, a Republican strategist and political commentator, tweeted, “I guess when it’s Melania’s Family, it’s ‘family reunification’ and should be applauded. Everybody else, it’s ‘chain migration’ and must be stopped.”

But Mark Krikorian, the executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, a think tank that supports tighter controls on immigration, said in an interview that the Knavses were following the law. “It’s the current system,” he said. “The question is what is the policy, and if a different policy is better, I’m all for it, but it doesn’t mean people working within the current policy are doing anything morally wrong.”

The president often rails against family-based immigration at his rallies, and has called it a pathway for terrorists to enter the country. He frequently reminds his audiences of the October terror attack in New York, where Sayfullo Saipov, an immigrant from Uzbekistan, plowed a pickup truck down a bike lane, killing eight people near the World Trade Center. While the president never names Mr. Saipov, who obtained his green card through the equally maligned diversity lottery, which grants visas to people from countries that have had fewer immigrants, he has been known to detail the attack.

“He said, ‘Hey look, there’s people, nice people, they’re relaxing, some are jogging,’” Mr. Trump said during a rally last week in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., lamenting the lives lost and those who were injured. “He decides to kill them.”

“They lost arms. They lost limbs. They lost so much. They lost their life. But they lost so much,” Mr. Trump added. “So, we have to change this and we’re going to change it.”

Typically, naturalization ceremonies at the Jacob K. Javits Federal Building at 26 Federal Plaza are large events, where groups of immigrants are sworn in as citizens en masse, after reciting an oath and the Pledge of Allegiance.

The Knavses’ lawyer said their ceremony was kept private for “security reasons.” Thomas Cioppa, New York district director of the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, presided over the 20-minute ceremony, Mr. Wildes said. As is customary, the couple held their hands over their hearts and recited the Pledge of Allegiance, he said.

The Knavses, both in their 70s, raised Mrs. Trump in Sevnica, a Slovenian town of around 4,500 people. There, Mr. Knavs was a traveling car salesman and belonged to the Communist Party. Mrs. Knavs had harvested onions on her family’s farm, then worked in a textile factory, and sewed her two daughters’ clothes.

Mrs. Trump was born in 1970 and during her childhood Slovenia, then part of Yugoslavia, was ruled by Josip Broz Tito, a Communist dictator who nonetheless allowed more freedoms than other Eastern bloc leaders. When Mrs. Trump began her modeling career, while still a teenager, the whole family sensed opportunity, according to those who knew them in Slovenia.

According to news reports, she entered the country&nbsp;in 2001 on a so-called Einstein visa for “individuals of extraordinary ability” as a model. She became a United States citizen in 2006.

Mrs. Trump was not present for the ceremony, and her parents told their lawyer she was in Bedminster, N.J., where the president spends time in the summer at Trump National Golf Club.

The Federal Building also houses immigration court and the local offices of the Department of Homeland Security, and its subsidiary, Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

It is not infrequently the site of protests, but on Thursday, things were quiet as the first lady’s parents came and went. Curious about the cameras, bystanders wandered over. William White, a 74-year-old actor, said, with his eyebrows raised, “I’m happy for them.”

He went on: “It seems like we now have two immigration systems. One for the people who have no power, and one for the people who we are letting in through the V.I.P. entrance. We saw an example of that today.”

 

Katie Rogers contributed reporting from Washington.

Follow Annie Correal and Emily Cochrane on Twitter: @anniecorreal and @ESCochrane

A version of this article appears in print on Aug. 10, 2018, Section A, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline


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Msg ID: 2716255 Unless your last name is: Arrow; Blackrock; Bravebird; Huaman; Summerhill  +1/-0     
Author:TheCrow
1/8/2022 5:04:45 PM

Reply to: 2716242

Arrow - given to a hunter.

Blackrock - a family from the black rock area.

Bravebird - based on a bird's trait.

Huaman - hawk. Pompey - five.

Summerhill - a family that lives on a hill.

Swiftwater - a family that lives near swift water.

Thunderhawk - based on the power of thunder, combined with the word hawk. T

sosie - slim. Vance - from the marsh.

Warcloud - from the words war and cloud.

Welch - foreign.

Read more: https://www.legit.ng/1397038-50-native-american-last-names-surnames-and-their-meanings.html



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