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Msg ID: 2746652 Roevember surprise? +3/-0     
Author:bladeslap
10/11/2022 12:32:02 PM

Michael Moore called the Trump Victory in 2016. Everyone thought he was crazy

Fast-forward 2022

Michael Moore predicts Democrats will win big in the midterms. Could he be right again? | Salon.com

Moore now showing that elections, in Highly republican places like Idaho, are going for Dems. 

He's saying that the polling and media are not taking into account the massive number of women registering and their predicted turnout due to Roe V. Wade and people who are sick and tired of election deniers...

Things have shifted quite a bit... Since Roe V. Wade in special elections

Democrats close the gap in two post-Roe v. Wade special elections - The Washington Post

Post-Roe special elections show potentially encouraging signs for Democrats - The Washington Post

I can't tell you for sure what is going to happen, but I see it more likley now that (R) will not do quite as well as Old guy and Flipper are thinking ..

The whackadoodles running and Row V Wade are going to have an impact. How big? 

Nov will tell us



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Msg ID: 2746655 "Roevember surprise?" I'm not convinced. +3/-0     
Author:TheCrow
10/11/2022 1:44:11 PM

Reply to: 2746652

In the run-up to 2016's presidential election, Hillary polled higher than Trump almost everywhere.

Trumpists are quiet or, like me, don't answer polls. Politely declined a half dozen phone polls in the last week.  Don't give money to a candidate, party in your own name if you can help it. They never, ever forget a sucker, er- contributor.

Anyhow, Trump's brand of conservatism has been the urine in conservative cornflakes. I don't disclose, much less discuss it with anybody who I don't know very well. Pollsters are, generally, just looking for a way to shape whatever it is they're working for. They're not changing feck-all, so I don't waste my breath so that they can decide on a lie acceptable to "X" members of the electorate. That's probably only true for real conservatives, I know 'Republican over-the-top fanatics' exist.

I agree that the Dobbs decision will motivate voters. Again, if my attitude is at all indicative, I don't know how I fall on the abortion issue. I support a woman's right of control of her body, but at some point there is another person involved. Not a 'life' because a life without self-determination is a vegetable.

The Trump Tantrum has run it's course. He did as his electorate wished, he upset the establishment. But that establishment is very flexible, adapted to the new political reality as it has dozens of times in recent history. Anything other than the Trumpisms already adapted are wasting away along with the Mart a Lago Moron's influence. His base will always be his base, but it is shrinking and the decisive bloc in the electorate- independents are so very, very over Trump. He and Ross Perot, George Wallace are funny little distractions from the real political action.

Oh- Lindsey Graham is doing all he can to lose that fight to- a national ban on abortion? More likely that the procedure will be more and more available. The times and the culture are changing. The average American family size hit 3.16 members and continues to decline, although it must be slower than it was 30 years ago- you can't get negative numbers as an average family size, numbers in the vicinity of 3.1 is gonna sticky- that's one in eight families with more than one child. The economics and culture will see to it.

 



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Msg ID: 2746716 "Roevember surprise?"  +3/-0     
Author:bladeslap
10/11/2022 9:08:57 PM

Reply to: 2746655

Post Dobbs, even in highly (R) areas like Idaho, the voter turnout models have not been accurate. That's to say that it's been much higher.

Also, the shift that polling is not picking up is that there has been about a 6-7 point shift away from (R). 

1. Whackadoodles running supporting the big lie

2. More and more bad news coming out about DT

3. Roe v wade

4. LGBTQ+ rights at risk

It may not necessariy be the polling data, but more the turnout models that "could" be off.

time will tell. A lot at stake here.

 



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Msg ID: 2746726 "Roevember surprise?"  +1/-2     
Author:Shooting Shark
10/11/2022 10:23:52 PM

Reply to: 2746716

"LGBTQ+ rights at risk"

How do you figure? That's what CNN tells you.. Defend that point if you can.

And what you need to realize, the Bidrn economic disaster completly overshadows anything and everything you fear in the minds of the average voter-- the "average voter" doesn't abort their children, isn't gay, doesn't follow politics closely, and doesn't foolishly imagine politics will save him.

He does realize inflation is tied to the "great reset" orchestrated by billionares and corporate/ government collusion.

He does realize inflation is taxing the poor and middle class induely, because of powers beyondd his political control ( and vote) 

When he votes next month, it will be a vote of no confidence against leftists and everything they stand for.. if that somehow "threatens" the LGBTQ agenda  -- well, it may be because they have tied all their hopes to a false  political platform -- one destined to collapse under the weight of corruption in Washington and those who want to steal not only their vote, but their country and childrens prosperity.

you sir, are a 

useful idiot.

 



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Msg ID: 2746733 "Roevember surprise?"  +3/-0     
Author:bladeslap
10/12/2022 12:14:31 AM

Reply to: 2746726

LGBTQ+ At Risk:

Clarence Thomas: We need to revisit that ruling

Biden Economic Disater?

Last I checked, the entire world has high inflation. You stick your head in the sand and ignore that. I get it...We are in the middle of all other modern econmies. Why do you continue to ignore that glaring issue?

Historically, Reopening the economy has lead to supply chain issues which has lead to inflation. this is fact, not fiction. Get-Your-Head-Out-of-the-Sand-And-out-Of-your...

I like how you focus ONLY on LGBTQ+ and you conveniently leave out the Whack-a-doodle Election deniers (like yourself), the MAGA morons who think it;s okay for Drumfp to keep highly secretive documents in his magainze rack, the Court who decided they can just cancel Roe V Wade ...

 

 



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Msg ID: 2746751 "Roevember surprise?"  +5/-3     
Author:Shooting Shark
10/12/2022 8:30:04 AM

Reply to: 2746733

First of all, the so called "election deniers" are a political majority.

calling them "whakadoodles" won't change that fact, of what we believe.

Creepy Joe didn't win the popular election. It was rigged. Clearly.

Now, secondly you said they eliminated RvW .. no they didn't. They remanded the decision to the state legislatures in many states, comiefornia, and your mafia "garden state" ( NJ) abortion continues - and id you Libz had your way it would continue for post-oartim infanticide.

So you're scared Clarence Thomas statement indicated they will reverse the gay marriage decision- a Supreme Court ruling, not a congressional act - or constitutional amendment.

Plays well in Peoria, perhaps, but two things make that improbable.

Stare Decisis: the legal precidrnt has been set. The USSC cant retroactively remind existing gay marriages. Neither can it be trwater like Roe ( State law) due to the nature of marriage and child custody which have Federal laws in place ( necessarily) 

Popular support and impact: Politically quite different from Roe. Which is a bigger isse for most people ( who aren't gay) women comprise 50% of the population. Perhaps 20% support elective abotrtion -- 1-5 % of the population is gay and I'm guessing fewer than 10% of them actually get married. Nor with wasting the political capital to oppose gay marriage. Infanticide on the other hand. murdered millions, the #1 killer of black people btw. 

The democrats are doomed next month.

Dont be scared. You asked for it! 

useful idiot! 



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Msg ID: 2746880 "Roevember surprise?" First of all, the so called "election deniers" are a +3/-0     
Author:TheCrow
10/13/2022 3:30:12 PM

Reply to: 2746751

First of all, the so called "election deniers" are a political majority.

Bullsh. You know it's bullsh when Trump advanced the excuse before the election and used it to attempt to overthrow the election to allow him to continue in office. Trummp is a demonstrated liar and a self-serving vindictive narcissist.

Trump did much better in the poll than expected... or Biden did worse, whatever.

44% of American Republican/Republican leaners (the largest body of the electorate is 'independent' not a party member) expressed confidence in the election's results.

No significant fraud of error was discovered. Significant is important in that context, as people make mistakes and people run elections, so errors were made. None would have affected the outcome, however.

 

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/feb/02/viral-image/no-most-americans-dont-believe-2020-election-was-f/

 

“Over 65% of the country believes that (the) 2020 election was fraudulent. That number was around 35% a year ago.”
truefalse
 
 
A supporter of President Donald Trump chants during a protest against the 2020 election results outside the central counting board at the former TCF Center in Detroit, Nov. 5, 2020. (AP)A supporter of President Donald Trump chants during a protest against the 2020 election results outside the central counting board at the former TCF Center in Detroit, Nov. 5, 2020. (AP)

A supporter of President Donald Trump chants during a protest against the 2020 election results outside the central counting board at the former TCF Center in Detroit, Nov. 5, 2020. (AP)


By Sara SwannFebruary 2, 2022

No, most Americans don’t believe the 2020 election was fraudulent

IF YOUR TIME IS SHORT

  • In several surveys conducted after November 2020, a majority of Americans said they believe the presidential election was free and fair. However, many Republicans still view Joe Biden’s victory as fraudulent.

Claims that the 2020 election was fraudulent have been repeatedly disproven through exhaustive audits, recounts, reports and reviews. But is it true that more than 65% of the nation still believes the narrative has merit?

No. But a widely shared Facebook claim asserts just as much:

"Over 65% of the country believes that (the) 2020 election was fraudulent. That number was around 35% a year ago," the Jan. 30 post claimed in words above a photo.

This post was flagged as part of Facebook’s efforts to combat false news and misinformation on its News Feed. (Read more about our partnership with Facebook.)

We reviewed 14 surveys that fleshed out polling on Americans’ attitudes about the 2020 election outcome and found none that back up this claim. However, surveys examining public sentiment around the 2020 election showed a clear partisan divide. Democrats typically believed there was no widespread voter fraud and Biden’s win was legitimate, while Republicans overwhelmingly said they doubted the election’s legitimacy.

In at least three surveys we found, the percentage of Republicans who said they didn’t trust the election came in around 65%.

The number of people overall who believe the election was fraudulent has hovered around 35% since November 2020, but this percentage has not increased significantly as the claim purports.

The surveys

A number of surveys examined public sentiment following the election. Here are a few with findings relevant to the claim:

  • Two Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research polls conducted in February span>and July 2021 found that two-thirds of Republican respondents believe Biden was illegitimately elected in 2020.

  • A January 2021 Morning Consult survey of 1,990 registered voters nationwide showed 65% responded that they believe the 2020 election was "free and fair." But when those results were broken down by party affiliation, only one-third of Republicans were in agreement with that statement. When asked what sources helped lead them to believe the election was fraudulent, a majority of Republicans cited former President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly claimed without evidence that his loss was not legitimate.

  • A December 2021 poll of 1,000 adults conducted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst and YouGov, found that 58% of all respondents believed Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election was legitimate. Only one-third of respondents said it was not legitimate. Of those who view the election as illegitimate, 83% named "fraudulent ballots supporting Joe Biden" as the reason for their belief.

  • Another December 2021 poll, this one conducted by the Washington Post and the University of Maryland, asked 1,101 adults: "Regardless of whom you supported in the 2020 election, do you think Joe Biden’s election as president was legitimate, or was he not legitimately elected?" Nearly 7 in 10 respondents said Biden was legitimately elected, while 29% said he was not.

  • A Quinnipiac University poll n>conducted one month after the November 2020 election found similar results. Six in 10 respondents said Biden’s win was legitimate, versus 34% who said it was not legitimate. A majority of respondents in the Quinnipiac poll also said they did not believe there was widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, whereas 38% said they did believe there was fraud.

  • When Quinnipiac conducted a second poll six months after the election, the number of respondents who believed the election to be legitimate increased to nearly two-thirds. Respondents who said the contest was illegitimate dropped to 29%.

Despite Trump’s claims of voter fraud, no evidence of widespread voting malfeasance has been found in the several reviews and audits of the 2020 election conducted by the federal government, state officials, election security experts and news organizations. PolitiFact has also fact-checked more than 80 misleading or false claims about voter fraud in the 2020 election.

Our ruling

A Facebook post said, "Over 65% of the country believes that (the) 2020 election was fraudulent. That number was around 35% a year ago."

More than a dozen public opinion surveys found that a majority of Americans overall believe the results of the 2020 election were legitimate. However, many of these polls also found that many Republicans continue to hold the view that the results were skewed by voter fraud, despite a lack of evidence.

We rate this claim False.



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